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EDUTECH RESEARCH DOSSIER Research Surveys in Education-Related Technologies www.BrandonU.ca/eduweb/technotes/surveys . Compiled by William G. Hillman
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The Institute for the Future/IEEE Spectrum Future of Science and Technology Survey was conducted online in February and March 2006. More than 700 IEEE Fellows across the globe participated. The sample consisted of 97 percent males and 3 percent females, with an equal mix of academic researchers and those working in industry. The survey asked participants to identify key breakthroughs in their areas of expertise and then to forecast probabilities of specific developments. The respondents were then asked to forecast trends within their areas of expertise. The forecast domains included computer science, telecommunications and media, sensors and robotics, materials and nanotechnology, energy, physics, space and earth sciences, and human health and biology. The respondents were also asked the probability of each forecast’s occurring over the next 50 years. If they believed that the forecast had at least a 60 percent chance of occurring, they were asked to provide a time frame in which it was likely to occur. Because the graphics here show only the most salient data, the percentages do not add up to 100 percent. Time frames were omitted when the consensus was divided or the number of respondents was small.
The Institute for the Future/ IEEE Spectrum Future of Science and Technology Survey
COMPONENT DIRECTORY:
Computer Science
Electronics
Sensors and Robotics
Physics
Space and Earth Sciences
Materials and Nano-technology
Energy
Biology
Computer Science (199 respondents)
Will a universal language translator become commercially available?
Unlikely 15.1%
Equal chances 20.1%
Likely 64.8%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 19.8%
11 to 20 years 50%
Will a quantum computer reach the market?
Unlikely 42.7%
Equal chances 25.1%
Likely 22.1%
Will handwriting recognition approach 99% accuracy?
Unlikely 15.1%
Likely 69.3%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 31.2%
11 to 20 years 46.4%
Will computer speech recognition of unstructured human speech approach 99% accuracy?
Unlikely 19.1%
Likely 61.8%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 25.2%
11 to 20 years 49.5%
Will we use parallel programming in mainstream applications?
Unlikely 5%
Equal chances 9%
Likely 83.4%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 58.6%
11 to 20 years 31.6%
Telecommunications (258 respondents)
Will terabit optical networks be common?
Unlikely 3.5%
Equal chances 6.9%
Likely 80.6%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 42.2%
11 to 20 years 46.9%
Will 3-D TV be adopted in homes?
Unlikely 29.8%
Equal chances 31.4%
Likely 33.3%
Will interactive computer graphics be lifelike?
Unlikely 5.8%
Likely 80.2%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 47.1%
11 to 20 years 40.7%
Will gigabit Internet access be available in homes in developed countries?
Unlikely 5%
Equal chances 10.5%
Likely 84.1%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 44.6%
11 to 20 years 45.1%
Will software-defined radio be integrated into consumer electronics?
Unlikely 3.5%
Equal chances 9.3%
Likely 81.8%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 57.9%
11 to 20 years 34.7%
Will global videoconferencing become routine?
Unlikely 7%
Equal chances 10.5%
Likely 81%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 70.7%
11 to 20 years 26.1%
Electronics (208 respondents)
Will nonvolatile data storage eclipse magnetic media?
Unlikely 14.4%
Equal chances 21.6%
Likely 57.7%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 39.3%
11 to 20 years 50.4%
Will holographic storage be a mainstream consumer technology?
Unlikely 35.6%
Equal chances 34.6%
Likely 15.4%
Will nanotube-based integrated circuits be commercialized?
Unlikely 34.1%
Equal chances 27.9%
Likely 33.2%
Will desktop printable electronics become routine?
Unlikely 17.3%
Equal chances 22.1%
Likely 48.1%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 38.7%
11 to 20 years 43%
Will 5-nanometer processors become commercially viable?
Unlikely 20.7%
Equal chances 22.6%
Likely 50.5%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 22.3%
11 to 20 years 48.5%
Will organic light-emitting diodes be the dominant display?
Unlikely 16.8%
Equal chances 31.7%
Likely 38.5%
Will the semiconductor industry hit the “Moore’s Law” wall?
Unlikely 12.5%
Equal chances 15.4%
Likely 70.7%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 29.6%
11 to 20 years 53.5%
Sensors and Robotics (129 respondents)
Will “smart dust” devices be widely deployed in sensor networks?
Unlikely 15.5%
Likely 51.9%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 29%
11 to 20 years 40.3%
Will radio-frequency identification be commonly integrated in consumer electronics?
Unlikely 0%
Equal chances 2.3%
Likely 95.3%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 66.7%
11 to 20 years 30.6%
Will household robotics be widely adopted?
Unlikely 17.8%
Equal chances 29.5%
Likely 48.8%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 16.1%
11 to 20 years 50%
Will printed bar codes be replaced by smart-tag technologies such as RFID?
Unlikely 2.3%
Equal chances 8.5%
Likely 86.8%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 63.1%
11 to 20 years 30.1%
Will humanoid robots care for the elderly in their homes?
Unlikely 39.5%
Equal chances 27.9%
Likely 27.1%
Will self-driving cars be in commercial production?
Unlikely 39.5%
Equal chances 30.2%
Likely 26.4%
Will sensor networks that scavenge power be widely used?
Unlikely 7.7%
Equal chances 21.5%
Likely 66.2%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 38.3%
11 to 20 years 44.4%
Physics (57 respondents)
Will a “Theory of Everything” unifying the forces of nature be widely accepted?
Unlikely 57.9%
Equal chances 26.3%
Likely 15.8%
Will cold fusion be demonstrated?
Unlikely 71.9%
Equal chances 12.3%
Likely 12.3%
Will the origin and nature of dark matter be well understood?
Unlikely 26.3%
Equal chances 26.8%
Likely 29.8%
Space and Earth Sciences (40 respondents)
Will Earth-like planets be discovered?
Unlikely 25%
Equal chances 15%
Likely 52.5%
Will we have accurate models of the impact of solar weather on Earth’s climate?
Unlikely 12.5%
Equal chances 25%
Likely 60%
Will living organisms be discovered on other planets?
Unlikely 40%
Equal chances 27.5%
Likely 25%
Will terrestrial weather forecasting be accurate to the hour?
Unlikely 30%
Equal chances 27.5%
Likely 40%
Will microelectromechanical systems be widely applied to medicine?
Unlikely 15.4%
Equal chances 22.1%
Likely 59.6%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 19.6%
11 to 20 years 50%
Will humans understand signals from extraterrestrial civilizations?
Unlikely 72.5%
Equal chances 15%
Likely 5%
Will scientists predict earthquakes with enough lead time to evacuate affected areas?
Unlikely 22.5%
Equal chances 50%
Likely 25%
Materials and Nano-technology (104 respondents)
Will room-temperature superconductors be commercially available?
Unlikely 56.7%
Equal chances 23.1%
Likely 14.4%
Will LEDs replace incandescent lightbulbs for home lighting?
Unlikely 1.9%
Equal chances 10.6%
Likely 86.5%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 46.3%
11 to 20 years 40.2%
Will nanoelectromechanical systems go commercial?
Unlikely 11.5%
Equal chances 26.9%
Likely 57.7%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 27.6%
11 to 20 years 55.2%
Will molecular self-assembly be commonly used to build integrated circuits?
Unlikely 38.5%
Equal chances 33.7%
Likely 26%
Will robust design tools for fabrication at the nanoscale become available?
Unlikely 10.6%
Equal chances 23.1%
Likely 63.5%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 38.7%
11 to 20 years 40.3%
Will microscale robotics become viable?
Unlikely 15.4%
Equal chances 26.9%
Likely 52.9%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 9.6%
11 to 20 years 53.8%
Will it be commercially viable to manufacture nanostructured materials to exact specifications without machining?
Unlikely 20.2%
Equal chances 22.1%
Likely 55.8%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 26.3%
11 to 20 years 50.9%
Energy (180 respondents)
Will fuel cells be widely used to power cars?
Unlikely 16.1%
Equal chances 26.7%
Likely 55%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 27.4%
11 to 20 years 56.8%
Will photovoltaics with 50% efficiency be in commercial production?
Unlikely 31.7%
Equal chances 31.7%
Likely 28.9%
Will fuel cells be widely used in mobile devices?
Equal chances 17.2%
Unlikely 14.4%
Likely 66.7%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 44.3%
11 to 20 years 43.5%
Will fuel cells be widely used as a source of household electricity in developing nations?
Unlikely 31.7%
Equal chances 30.6%
Likely 32.2%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 17.5%
11 to 20 years 38.6%
21 to 50 years 43.9%
Will fuel cells be widely used a source of household electricity globally?
Unlikely 44.4%
Equal chances 32.3%
Likely 19.4%
Will fusion reactors be a commercial success?
Unlikely 57.8%
Equal chances 23.3%
Likely 14.4%
Biology (82 respondents)
Will implantable brain-machine interfaces be widely adopted?
Unlikely 19.5%
Equal chances 29.3%
Likely 47.6%
Will prosthetic retinas be commercially available?
Unlikely 11%
Equal chances 28%
Likely 54.9%
Will most people globally have documented personal genetic profiles?
Unlikely 56.1%
Equal chances 19.5%
Likely 22%
Will scientists have accurate computational models of the human senses?
Unlikely 13.4%
Equal chances 30.5%
Likely 53.7%
Will most individuals in developed countries have documented personal genetic profiles?
Unlikely 11%
Equal chances 19.5%
Likely 68.3%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 22.2%
11 to 20 years 55.6%
Will rapid DNA sequencing become affordable?
Unlikely 6.1%
Equal chances 21.4%
Likely 67.1%
When is this likely to occur?
10 years or less 41.5%
11 to 20 years 37.7%
Will most medical diagnosis be conducted via telemedicine in developed nations?
Unlikely 29.3%
Equal chances 31.7%
Likely 36.7%
Will most medical diagnosis be conducted via telemedicine in developing nations?
Unlikely 39%
Equal chances 31.7%
Likely 28%
About the Authors:
IFTF staff who contributed to this survey include Mani Pande, Anthony Townsend, Mike Liebhold, Alex Soojung-Kim Pang, and Maureen Davis.
MARINA GORBIS is executive director of the Institute for the Future (IFTF), an independent nonprofit research group based in Palo Alto, Calif.
DAVID PESCOVITZ is a research affiliate at IFTF, coeditor of the blog BoingBoing.net and editor-at-large of Make Magazine. For information on the IFTF, visit http://www.iftf.orgBACK TO THE HILLMAN EDUTECH RESEARCH DOSSIER CONTENTS PAGE
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